The equity indices went nowhere in the last month, not even the liebling European equities. It feels like the holiday trading has already begun.

What now? That was the closing sentence after almost every conversation lately when I tried to pick someone’s brain about the near future of stock market. Most people sounded cautious so probably they still have money on the sideline which hurts if the markets keep rising. And the market has a tendency to go where it harms most participants. Don’t get me wrong, I would place a large bet on that the stock indicies will underperform in 2014 compared to 2013 (little bit risky bet considering there is still a month left) but a great number of people are trying to pinpoint those short period of turbulent times when one hit wonders are made. These folks strive to make it to the headlines instead of becoming successful persistence hunters. Product of a recent crisis, I guess.

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-20112013-AP/EN/3-20112013-AP-EN.PDF

Demographics is an important factor for a nation long term and France + UK are ahead among the most populous nations. Germany on the other hand will face a short supply of labor force so ceteris paribus this economy will create the gravity to attract the highest skilled workers in the future and the immigration will make great positive impact. (http://www.voxeu.org/article/fiscal-effects-immigration-uk)

 

 

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